My Little Corner of Canada: Election ’97 timing is bad

JOHN AMAGOALIK

The opening issue of the federal election is the timing. Prime Minister Chrétien has called the election only three and half years into his mandate, which is viewed by many people as opportunistic since the Liberals lead their rivals in the public opinion polls. Memories of David Peterson of Ontario are recalled when he called an early election under similar circumstances and was punished by the voters.

The timing is also bad for the people of Manitoba who are having to deal with major flooding and don’t really have time for campaigning politicians.

As I predicted at the beginning of the year, I still expect the Liberals to win but with a reduced majority. It is also a real possibility that they could be reduced to a minority government. The timing is bad. The GST issue won’t go away. Many people are still grumbling about gun control. And the near loss to the separatists in the last referendum has people wondering if Chretien has the stuff to fight another referendum.

The Liberals will probably win mainly because no party is close enough to catch them. The only party that has a change of surprising many people are the Conservatives.

The Reform Party will be very lucky to make any gains. It is more likely that they will come back with fewer than the 50 MPs they had in the last Parliament.

It is shaping up as a three way fight between the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the BlocHeads in the province of Quebec. Lucien Bouchard will probably have to come to Duceppes’ rescue a number of times during the campaign. As predicted by this Little Corner at the beginning of the year, the new leader of the Bloc lacks charisma. Who will win the most seats in Quebec is anybody’s guess at the moment.

The New Democratic Party could either make gains and return as an official party in the House or else shrink even further into obscurity. How they do will depend on how Alexa McDonough performs during the campaign.

Here in Nunavut, we won’t even begin to think how we are going to vote until the candidates have been nominated and their platforms revealed.

Back in the fall of 1993, Jean Chrétien, then leader of the Opposition, told an Inuit delegation, “Nunavut will be created in 1999 when I am still prime minister of Canada.” Was his confidence justified? We’ll find out on June 2.