World needs to ignore Arctic fossil fuel resources: new research

A new study says Arctic fossil fuel resources are best left alone — and that includes offshore oil drilling in the Arctic. Here the Ocean Rig Corcovado, located about 180 kilometres offshore Nuuk, drilled down 4,847 metres in 2011. (FILE PHOTO)

A third of the world’s oil reserves, half of its gas reserves and more 80 per cent of current coal reserves globally should remain in the ground and not be used before 2050.

That’s if warming is to stay below the two-degree C target for the world’s temperature increase, according to new research by the UK Energy Research Centre.

The study, “The geographical distribution of fossil fuels unused when limiting global warming to 2 °C,” published in the journal Nature Jan. 8, identifies where existing reserves that should remain unused are located — among these oil, gas and coal in the Arctic.

“The development of resources in the Arctic and any increase in unconventional oil — oil of a poor quality which is hard to extract — are also found to be inconsistent with efforts to limit climate change,” said a news release on the study.

In the Arctic, 100 per cent of oil and gas reserves must remain undeveloped, the study’s authors say.

“We estimate there to be 100 billion barrels of oil (including natural gas liquids) and 35 trillion cubic metres of gas in fields within the Arctic Circle that are not being produced as of 2010. However, none is produced in any region in either of the 2°C scenarios before 2050. These results indicate to us that all Arctic resources should be classified as unburnable.“

For the study, the scientists first developed a way to estimate the quantities, locations and nature of the world’s oil, gas and coal reserves and resources.

They then used a model to see which of these, along with low-carbon energy sources, should be used up to 2050 to meet the world’s energy needs.

Lead author Dr. Christophe McGlade said “we’ve now got tangible figures of the quantities and locations of fossil fuels that should remain unused in trying to keep within the 2°C temperature limit.

“Policy makers must realise that their instincts to completely use the fossil fuels within their countries are wholly incompatible with their commitments to the 2°C goal.”