A large sun means a warm winter, weatherman predicts

This simple experiment can help you understand why the coming winter will be warm, according to Wayne Davidson, a keen viewer of the sun and weather station operator in Resolute Bay: take two glasses, one filled with warm water, the other with cold water, stick them into your freezer and see which one freezes first.
It’s the cooler one that will freeze first, Davidson said.

And, similarly, because the northern hemisphere is warmer than usual, it’s not going to become as cold this winter.

“The atmosphere is extremely warm. It will take time for it to cool down, and by the time it cools down, the sun will rise up again,” Davidson said. “There’s an enormous amount of residual warm air.”

What happens in the winter, Davidson said, is that after the sun disappears, there’s no more heat source, so the only thing left for heat is air from the South or from the open water in the ocean.

To see just how much warm air is around at this time of year, Davidson looks at the sun: “a very cold atmosphere squashes the sun near the horizon, a warm one makes it look round.” This year, he said “it’s mind-blowing it’s so big.”

“The warm air is near the ground, but the warm air is above, too — it’s everywhere,” Davidson said.

What this means is that in the northern hemisphere the winter of 2005-06, until the end of March, will be the warmest yet. This warm winter follows a weaker cooling during last winter, compared to previous years, especially in the higher atmosphere.

“But the reason I’m saying it’s number one (with respect to warmth) is that the sun is so big,” Davidson said.

When he compared an image shot on Nov. 4, 2004, with one shot this year on Oct. 30 Davidson found the sun disk was much larger and rounder.

“This is due to warm air aloft. There was much warmer air in 2005, and the rounder the sun the warmer the atmosphere,” he said. “The heat is still there and it is not about to go away fast.”