Elections will delay decisions on NMD

The outcome of upcoming national elections in Canada and the United States this year means that any deal between the two countries on missile defence is likely to be delayed, despite growing public concern over possible Canadian participation in the U.S. scheme.

“We”ll be looking at this two years down the road,” said Dale Grant, the managing editor of the Toronto-based Defence Policy Review and a keen observer of defence developments in North America.

The U.S. wants to erect a defensive line of missile and radar sites that would track and destroy hostile missiles aimed at North America from so-called “rogue states,” such as Iran and North Korea.

If Canada decides to participate and Nunavut’s territory is affected, the Government of Nunavut has said it will want to be involved in any discussions.

But, for the moment, Grant sees more “if’s” than “when’s” in the future.

As Prime Minister Paul Martin looks to a federal election as early as this spring, Grant doubts Canada will move ahead on missile defence immediately, because decisions on missile defense are essentially political decisions, not military ones

“I don’t expect we’re going to see anything out of the government in this election period. Mr. Pratt is pro, but lots of other people in the Liberal Party, like the foreign affairs minister, are not for it,” Grant said.

So, moving ahead to strike a deal with the U.S. might not be a good move on Martin’s part.

“The government itself, as we saw in the last vote [in the House], is at sixes and nines on this issues,” Grant said.

However, after a federal election, the balance could change.

“There may be a different government elected and it may wrap their arms around it,” Grant said. “That’s up to the voters of Canada.”

Next November, voters in the U.S. will also go to the polls to elect a new president.

They’ll choose between George W. Bush and John Kerry, a liberal Democrat who is sceptical of the plan.

“There could be a change in presidential leadership in the United States and you could expect these programs to be rolled to the back-burner again,” Grant said. “If the Democrats get elected, they have better ways to spend the money.”

In the meantime, the U.S. under Bush is “desperately running” to get to what’s called “initial operational capability” for the missile defence system – that is, to get a skeleton missile defense shield up and running along the Pacific coast of North America.

“Once you’ve got it deployed, once you’ve done that, for anyone to un-deploy it is almost impossible,” Grant said.

Still, Grant, who calls himself “a pro-defence kind of guy,” said he’s skeptical about the technology involved because it’s hasn’t been proven to be work yet.

And he said the Canadian government is fooling itself if it thinks the ballistic missile system won’t mean putting weapons into space.

“Once you join up, the system will roll out as the system rolls out,” Grant said.