Hang on to your parkas

Global cooling could develop in 50 years and have serious consequences before it is replaced by a period of warming in the early 22nd century, a Russian scientist says.

“On the basis of our [solar emission] research, we developed a scenario of a global cooling of the Earth’s climate by the middle of this century and the beginning of a regular 200-year-long cycle of the climate’s global warming at the start of the 22nd century,” said Khabibullo Abdusamatov, the head of the space research sector of the Russian Academy of Sciences’ astronomical observatory.

RIA Novosti reports that Abdusamatov and his colleagues have concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century – when Vikings left Greenland – could start in 2012-2015 and reach its peak in 2055-2060.

Abdusamatov said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today because “climate cooling is connected with changing temperatures, especially for northern countries.”

“The Kyoto initiatives to save the planet from the greenhouse effect should be put off until better times,” he said, referring to the international agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

“The global temperature maximum has been reached on Earth, and Earth’s global temperature will decline to a climatic minimum even without the Kyoto protocol,” Abdusamatov said.

The possibility of the climate change leading to cooling – at least in some regions – was backed up by another report, published in the August 25 issue of Science, on how fresh water from Arctic Ocean sources are creating a fresher North Atlantic.

Scientists say a larger increase of freshwater flow to the Arctic Ocean could slow or halt the great “conveyor belt” current that is responsible for redistributing salt and thermal energy around the globe, influencing the planet’s climate.

One of the potential effects of altered global ocean circulation could be a cooling of northern Europe within this century.