Nunavut’s population will soar over the next 25 years: StatsCan

A Statistics Canada graph showing different growth scenarios for Nunavut over the next quarter century.

The number of people living in Nunavut is projected to grow faster than anywhere else in Canada except Alberta over the next 25 years, Statistics Canada reported Sept. 17.

Nunavut’s population stood at about 35,600 in 2013, StatsCan said, and is expected to grow to between 44,000 and 53,000 by 2038.

That’s an increase of between 23 to 50 per cent over 25 years. Alberta’s population is projected to rise by 40 to 70 per cent over the same period.

The average age of Nunavut’s population will continue to be the youngest in Canada over that time, the report said.

The increase in population is expected “as a result of much higher fertility than elsewhere in Canada,” the report says.

The fertility rate is the average number of children per woman. In 2011, Nunavut women had an average of 2.97 babies, compared to 1.61 for Canada.

Projecting populations involves assumptions about fertility, mortality rates, and the movement of people between provinces and territories, StatsCan said.

To compensate for the “inherent uncertainty,” StatsCan used seven different population projections ranging from low growth to high growth.

Canada’s other territories are projected to have much smaller growth rates.

Yukon’s population is projected to increase by between 6 and 30 per cent, while the Northwest Territories’ population may actually shrink by 5 per cent, or grow only slightly, by 2038.

Canada’s overall population is expected to grow from just over 35 million people in 2013 to between 39 and 48 million by 2038, an increase of 12 to 36 per cent.