“Cold rush” could bring more sovereignty threats

OTTAWA – Amid concerns about a future "Cold Rush" on Arctic resources, more traffic through the Northwest Passage and increasing threats to Canadian sovereignty, what should Canada do to prepare for 2030, the year when scientists predict summers may be ice-free in the Arctic Ocean?

Should Canada invest in a fleet of ice-capable armed patrol vessels to protect its increasingly accessible Arctic waters?

Or should Canada work diplomatically through the Arctic Council to strengthen and stabilize the Arctic peoples and governments?

Discussion about which approach should guide Canada's future northern strategy dominated last week's 2030 national planning conference in Ottawa, which was organized by the Canadian Arctic Resources Committee, Inuit Tapiriit Kanatami and the University of Calgary's Centre for military and strategic studies.

A total change is needed to make Canada's northern strategy effective, Franklyn Griffiths, a distinguished political science professor from the University of Toronto, told the conference's 200 delegates.

Griffiths said Canada's present northern strategy, built around the four themes of sovereignty, the economy, environmental protection and governance, is constructed more like a building than a political strategy.

The strategy for Canada's North should instead resemble an elegant and flexible "spear" for progress, he said, relying on diplomacy to achieve peaceful co-management, or stewardship, over the entire circumpolar region.

Bringing Arctic international relations back to the forefront of Canadian concerns, building collaboration with the US and Russia and breathing new life into the Arctic Council should be among Canada's main goals.

And investing in co-operation instead of military hardware should be at the heart of its strategy, said Griffiths, who believes the threats to sovereignty in Canada's Arctic have been "overstated."

"Are we going to be ready to fight? I really can't think that kind of thing is in store," he told the Nunatsiaq News.

But the Arctic could become a region rocked by armed conflicts, and Canada should adopt a tough strategy designed to fend off threats, if you buy into the view of Rob Huebert from the University of Calgary's centre for military and strategic studies.

For Huebert, who also spoke at the 2030 conference, the warmer Arctic is a magnet for resource- hungry forces, and he wants Canada's leaders to "stop thinking small" when they plan ahead.

As 2030 moves closer, Canada must take a more visible role in monitoring and protecting the Arctic, he said.

This means Canada shouldn't wait until foreign warships show up off the shore of Baffin Island before building up its defenses, he told Nunatsiaq News.

It's better to control Canada's Arctic and prepare for increased interest in the region by boosting surveillance and enforcing stricter regulations on shipping.

Wait later to co-operate, Huebert suggests.

"Until co-operation is the way to go, we need enforcement and surveillance what they are doing and what they are saying," he said.

That's what governments did after 9-11 to beef up airline security, so it's possible.

After that, you can think about co-operating in a northern strategy, he told the Nunatsiaq News.

ITK president Mary Simon and environmental activist Sheila (Siila) Watt-Cloutier put their support behind circumpolar co-operation at the 2030 conference, calling for more action on climate change and increased indigenous involvement.

Simon was Canada's Arctic ambassador when the Arctic council's eight member nations – Canada, the United States, Russia, Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Iceland – and indigenous permanent participants held their inaugural meeting in Ottawa in 1996.

But now Canada doesn't have an Arctic ambassador, and, unless it embraces a new northern strategy, many at the 2030 conference predict Canada won't be ready when it takes over the council's chairmanship in 2013 for two years.