MLA lobbies for manned weather bureau in Nunavut

On April 21 and 22, when a record-breaking 47 centimetres of snow blanketed Rankin Inlet, Environment Canada was right on the mark.

The forecast correctly predicted heavy snowfall, and residents received weather warnings before the storm hit.

But Environment Canada's long-distance weather forecasts don't always accurately warn Nunavummiut what weather to expect or match what's seen on the ground.

That's why Ed Picco, the MLA for Iqaluit East, has lobbied for a manned Environ­ment Canada weather bureau in Nunavut.

"Where does that leave Nunavummiut when our forecasting centre is over 2,000 kilometres away?" Picco asked in the Nunavut legislature on March 20.

Picco pointed out how a flip-flop in Environment Canada forecasts left Iqalummiut unprepared for a blizzard this past March.

On Friday, March 16, an 11 a.m. forecast called for blizzard conditions in Iqaluit the following Monday and Tuesday. That afternoon, the blizzard warning disappeared. Environment Canada did not re-post a blizzard warning until later Monday morning, just as the storm struck.

The late warning meant schools and offices opened, only to close down suddenly when the wind and snow picked up, sending students and workers scurrying home in stormy weather.

"Gander [Newfoundland] was restaffed with meteorologists because it was felt that the forecast from Halifax, 500 miles away, was too far and inaccurate," Picco said in the legislature.

When satellite images showed a huge area of cold, wet precipitation headed for Rankin Inlet on April 21, meteorologist Mike McDon­ald was on duty at Winnipeg's Arctic Storm Prediction Centre, where he is one of 22 meteorologists.

The storm was concentrated in a narrow band stretching south of Rankin Inlet north up to Chesterfield Inlet, which also got heavy snow. The bulk of the storm skirted other Kivalliq communities, but managed to combine with strong winds to create blizzard conditions in Baker Lake.

To help fine-tune warnings and forecasts, McDonald relied on hourly information feeds from Rankin Inlet's airport and updated satellite images.

In Nunavut communities where there is no 24-hour weather station, McDonald says he also relies on observations from the public to confirm this information. Sometimes meteorologists will call the RCMP or simply flip through the telephone book and choose a number at random to call.

"Northerners get some strange calls from Environment Canada," said meteorologist Yvonne Bilan-Wallace of the Arctic Weather Bureau in Edmonton.

Bilan-Wallace and McDonald were in Iqaluit last week to attend a meeting. It was McDonald's first visit to Baffin Island, although he tracks the region's weather on a daily basis.

But he and Bilan-Wallace say it's not essential for them to be in Nunavut to forecast the territory's weather, thanks to satellite images and other computerized weather data.

In fact, Bilan-Wallace remembers covering Arctic weather from a southern office that didn't even have a window. She says there wouldn't be any advantage to having Environment Canada meteorologists based in Iqaluit because they would base their forecasts on the same information as they do in Edmonton or Winnipeg.

McDonald and Bilan-Wallace say blizzard warnings are issued when the weather conditions at Iqaluit's airport, combined with satellite information, show there will be enough snow and wind for a blizzard.

According to Environ­ment Canada's guidelines, a winter storm must have winds of at least 40 kilometres per hour, snow or blowing snow, visibility of less than one kilometre, and a wind chill of less than -25 C. All of these conditions must last four hours or more before a storm becomes a blizzard.

The two meteorologists caution that Nunavut weather conditions often worsen rapidly, causing warnings and forecasts to change.

They say Environment Canada is evaluating how to improve forecasts for Nunavut and may involve taxi drivers in Iqaluit as weather observers during storms as part of a pilot project under International Polar Year.