Arctic militarization could lead to ‘unintentional incidents’ in region, Russia warns
Canada is monitoring developments ‘to deter threats to Allied security’ in the Arctic, Global Affairs Canada spokesperson says
Canadian Armed Forces members take part in Operation Nanook-Nunalivut in February. Operation Nanook is an annual northern military exercise. (Photo courtesy of Master Cpl. Sarah Morley, Canadian Armed Forces)
Militarization of the Arctic by Canada and its allies could lead to “incidents” and possible military confrontations, says a Russian government official.
Russian Foreign Affairs ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova says the current militarization of the Arctic could lead to a “beginning of a military confrontation” between Russia and western nations. (Photo courtesy of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russian Federation)
“Speaking of the politics of the West in the far North: they are simply creating security threats for our country,” said Maria Zakharova, spokesperson for Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in Russian at a news conference in March.
Those “security threats” increase the risks of “unintentional incidents, which in case of a negative scenario could lead to a beginning of a military confrontation.”
The Arctic has been considered a region of low international tensions for decades. In 1987, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev described the Arctic as a “peace and co-operation zone” — a sentiment later shared by all eight Arctic nations: Canada, United States, Russia, Norway, Denmark, Finland, Iceland and Sweden.
But things have changed, and Zakharova’s statement is just one of the latest signs of that, says Alison LeClaire, Canada’s former ambassador to Russia.
The statement was Russia’s “signal” that it wants to be taken into account as other Arctic nations build up their military capacities in the North, she said.
“Just remember, as you have all of these conversations about what you’re doing in the Arctic, that we are watching and we are listening, and it’s not a really a great idea to leave us out of the conversation,” LeClaire said, describing what she believes Russia’s message is.
In the meantime, Canada is continuing to “monitor developments and take steps to deter threats to allied security,” said Thida Ith, spokesperson for Global Affairs Canada, in an emailed response to Zakharova’s statement.
In the years since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Arctic nations including Canada have realized the need to increase their military presence in the region.
“The Arctic is no longer a low-tension region,” said then-foreign affairs minister Mélanie Joly in 2024 when announcing the federal government’s $34.7-million Arctic Foreign Policy.
“Guardrails that prevent conflict are increasingly under immense strain.”
Since then, the federal government has announced billions of dollars in Arctic defence spending, including $2.7 billion for seven Arctic operational support hubs and nodes, $32 billion for upgrades to the air force’s northern forward operating locations, and $7 billion for an over-the-horizon radar system.
Russia and China pose the most significant threat to Canada’s interests in the Arctic, says Canadian Armed Forces Maj.-Gen. Michael Wright.
Despite that, “the threat of a Russian incursion into Canada’s Arctic is low,” he said in a Senate report titled Arctic Security Under Threat, published in June 2023
LeClaire agrees.
“I think it’s important to understand that for Russia the current rules in the Arctic really work,” she said.
Over the years, Russia has followed conventions and regulations governing the Arctic. The current order has allowed Russia to achieve its economic and military goals in the region, so it wouldn’t want that to change, Leclaire said.
From 2014 to 2019, Russia established 14 airfields, six military bases, refurbished 16 Soviet-era deepwater ports, and established 10 border posts in the Arctic according to the Arctic Institute, a U.S.-based think tank.
Russia’s intelligence services have engaged in “foreign interference activities” in Canada’s Arctic, according to a 2024 report from CSIS, Canada’s spy agency.
The report didn’t specify what those activities are, but said the agency is working to “counter threats posed by the Russian Federation towards Canada’s Arctic sovereignty.”
All that could potentially lead to the kind of “unintentional incidents” that Zakharova was talking about, LeClaire said.
Canada’s former ambassador to Russia, Alison LeClaire, says a military confrontation between Canada and Russia in the Arctic is unlikely. (Photo courtesy of Government of Canada)
“If you have more military traffic in a zone, you have a higher risk of those assets misunderstanding one another,” she said.
If such incidents arise, they would come at a time when Canada and Russia have largely ended their “channels of communication” that could have helped to de-escalate the situation, she said.
“But I don’t think Russia presents a physical threat to Canada in the Arctic,” LeClaire said.
“I know it’s a view out there — it doesn’t make any sense to me. It is too important to Russia to have peace and stability in the Arctic for them to disrupt that.”
” Unintentional incident ” , hope , i don t become a refugee in my life time .
Most likely not NORTHERNER, we’re not under PoTuS.
Russia and China want our arctic, to get closer to the west, our minerals and our northwest passage…. there are multiple reports and news articles of Russian aircrafts coming into our air space in the arctic without notice testing us.. also with China trying to open gold mines here in the arctic.
The west needs to issue a warning and then follow through. If a airplane, ship, whatever comes within a certain distance to ours it will be shot down, sunk, etc. Problem solved. No they wont start a war over it because they have been warned and its a reasonable request for them not to cause unsafe incidents by getting to close to our planes, etc. If they do take them out every single time.
Have you followed recent International news?
Long story short, the UK did just that and threatened to seize Russian tankers in their territory and Russian sailed them through the English Channel with a Frigate escort.
Russia doesn’t back down from threats historically.
“Our” Northwest Passage? That’s a strange way to refer to an international waterway.
Like Strait of Hormuz , except with lots of ice
Well, Canada see it as Canadian. Where are you from?
” Oh those russians “
This is the typical doublethink that Russians are capable of.
After establishing 14 airfields, six military bases, refurbished 16 deep water ports, and established 10 border posts over a 5 year period, they now say it is the west that is creating security threats for their country.
Meanwhile, the number of Russian incursions into NORAD monitored airspace north of Canada and Alaska are spiking.
The only “unintentional incident” that is probable with these things happening is a Russian bomber getting shot down because their pilot forgot to turn around.
LOL Russia complains that the USA is causing civilian deaths, hitting schools, etc. Now that is rich considering all Russia has done in Ukraine is cause civilian deaths on purpose. We need to forget the rules of war and the UN. As long as China and Russia have a veto that organization is useless.
The US and Russia are both ignoring international law and norms while committing war crimes.
However, the answer isn’t to abandon international law, it is to strengthen it.
Do you know what gets targeted in conflicts, military bases. Given proximity to town of DEW line sites and potential military bases, its very much likely if in a worse case scenario conflict broke out and Arctic military bases were targeted we would see civilian casualties and obviously civilian infrastructure such as power plants, W&S lines, etc taken as well.
I am fairly opposed to bases within any close proximity to our towns here. I much rather see a base and port attached to something like GBRP as a result, something in the middle of nowhere not close to civilian infrastructure to minimize future casualties if the worst case did happen.
I know many in the north are cheering, hoping for military investment but I honestly don’t want my little town to become a strategic military point, strategic means its also strategic for the opposition to target it.
No thanks from me.
You think your cities are safe from Russia if they are further away?? I guess you know nothing about the Ukraine war. The only people that play by the rules of war are the west. Russia China etc never have and never will. They torture prisoners, target civilian power, water, etc sources, bomb hospitals and schools. Some one needs to wake up and fast.
Ya Russia would never cause civilian casualties. attack civilian apartments, etc. Wait what are they doing in Ukraine and the complaining about it when someone else does it. It does not matter how far you are from a military base they don’t care.
I was in military service long ago posted at CFS Inuvik, it was Comm Research Station then. Why can DND create another post similar to Inuvik back in the days of 70s and 80? “CFS Resolute” would be good as any northern community for a Comm Research Station. Major countries are getting to close to the CDN Arctic according to news.
I hope they Clean up after with white out snow and take the trash out.
Many miss the point that Russia is a dictatorship and claim same areas in the Arctic Ocean than Canada. Putin’s Russia is a rogue state that defy international law, like the US and Israel (and others) and Russia has the assets, like nuclear submarines and icebreakers to do whatever they want in Canadian waters while Canada doesn’t. This statement is clearly a claim to some Canadian territory at this point since it wouldn’t bother Russia if Canada would militarise its own territory.